2012年3月28日 星期三

凶險

老千股問題,近來已有不少精彩的文章討論,自問從前也買過不少問題股(3393, 1733, 493...etc),幸而當時未爆大獲,逃過數劫,所以也沒有足夠功力去分析OT問題。今天想指出,OT公司近日連連爆煲,究竟是事出偶然,抑或是預視了一些現象?


小企頻頻出事,背後原因,極有可能是大環境再不容許或不利於他們玩「昆水」遊戲,即今天發生的小插曲,有機會預視了中國未來一兩個月,將有極度負面消息浮面。大難當前,CAP水走人,自然不過。


令人憂心的現象,是部份估值低殘、貌似正常、錯價較少機會出現的中型大型股,顯然沒有承接力,而A股節節破底,也是問題所在。


請小心所謂「估值低、息口高」的口號而疏於防範,投資股票,對於盈利模式、能見度、管理層作風的認知,也十分重要(尤其是市淡的時候)。假如四月初熊勢持續,港股將十分凶險。


唯一令人安慰的是,現在投資者普遍情緒審慎,不過這是主觀感覺,作不得準。希望垃圾公司頻頻爆破後,港股的調整將告一段落,但以前借貸過度的內銀、盈利能力歸零的內保、表面風光的內房,現價是否已全面計入負面因素?個人感覺是信不過,網友選股時宜十分小心。


2012或許是以守為攻之年。

17 則留言:

  1. 小弟先減磅
    現金為王,日後大把機會買貨
    上證又真係幾危

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  2. 謝謝分享

    君子不立危牆之下,先做好防守

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    1. 今天小弟用國指對沖了,可幸是,暫時不是所有股票都跌。

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  3. 開市買入國指熊做對沖,數量約2~3張
    止蝕:112自動打把

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    1. 61299@0.101 x 200K

      看形勢再作是否加倉的決定

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    2. 增持61299@0.103 x100k,@0.111@50k

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  4. 英哥上年推 1733 and 3393, 仲有titanic 葬身大洋的486 啊

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  5. 英哥全中,睇生果日報佢的專欄,真係超級財演內容.

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    1. 變質了,日後他的分析不用認真。

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  6. 今天加了國指淡倉對沖持股(平均價0.103, 350K=3.5張)

    細看國指成份股,很多股票都有潛質成為問題爆獲股,相反恆指成份公司的盈利可能較穩定及實在。做對沖,自然從弱者入手。

    暫時不是所有股票都下跌,希望今次跌市,仍會存在一點綠州。

    若國企弱勢持續,會因應市況增加淡倉,暫定以沽空5張細國指為限,112自動打把止蝕。

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  7. strongly support!!!

    Goldone 兄既Timing very good

    小弟今日組合係上升,確實有部份強股表現還OK

    但當大市恐慌上黎,乜股都會洗,都係保守點為上

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    1. 不是的,三月衍生工具交易連環做燈,已蝕去一二月的所有衍生工具炒賣盈利... ...

      今天期結,在之前已連跌七八天的情況下,指數竟然在平倉力量幫助下彈都唔彈,情況實在十分之差,即使不做對沖,增持現金,也是很好的防守方法。

      相信不少國企第一季業績將帶給我們很多「驚喜」!

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  8. PGJ: The other Chinese ETF

    China is one of the few places I want to own stock these days. Why? Because I think their economy is most well-positioned to weather this storm. Chinese ETFs are down over 50% from their high last year. Buying opportunity or value trap? I’m going with buying opp. China is a rising global power, and they can tap significant public/private savings to stimulate their domestic economy during the downturn.

    China’s average savings rate is around 50%. Most analysts view this as a point of weakness for China, because people aren’t buying stuff they don’t need with credit they don’t deserve. In China, people usually save to buy things they want. Analysts don’t seem to understand this alien concept. All they know is that it sounds boring, and slow! But there just might be something to it.

    The two most popular Chinese ETFs are FXI and GXC. But both of these are very heavily weighted towards financials, 41% for FXI, and 30% for GXC. I already own enough banks in America, courtesy of my taxpayer dollars (poorly-run ones, whose financial results are unintelligible. Hmmm, maybe Chinese banks are worth a look too?). Anyways, I’d rather focus on China’s overall economy, particularly domestic spending and growth.

    PGJ is a Chinese index fund that seems to fit the bill. It has only 6% exposure to financials, and has been around since 2004. It’s based on the 102 stocks of the Halter USX China Index. It’s comprised of Chinese companies who get the majority of their revenue domestically.

    I’ll be averaging into a PGJ position over the next few months. The bottom line is that I want some more exposure to China, but not to banks and finance. Picking individual Chinese stocks is hard, I only own two: BIDU and AOB. So PGJ seems like a good index if you’re looking for non-financial diversification.

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  9. 減持國指熊61299 @0.09 x 150k,餘下200k

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