"While its stock dropped this week after Tesla reported lower gross margins in its second quarter report, regulatory credits obfuscated some progress. Excluding regulatory credits, Tesla’s automotive gross margin increased roughly 200 basis points to 17.2% despite a drop in average selling prices (ASPs). While still below 20%, Tesla’s gross margin should continue to increase as its production scales and battery costs continue to fall. Moreover, once Tesla releases full self-driving capability, we believe its margins should expand even faster as its revenue base shifts towards software-based, recurring revenue products and services.
Tesla also announced that CTO JB Staubel is stepping aside and that Drew Baglino, his deputy for more than a decade, will succeed him. While ARK is sad to see this battery visionary shift into an advisory role, his decision is understandable for three reasons: first, he needs some down time after an intense 16 years; second, Tesla’s strategic priorities have shifted toward manufacturing at scale and artificial intelligence for autonomy, both of which are not his core competency; and third, he recently founded a company, Redwood Materials, which could be setting up to recycle lithium-ion batteries.
Perhaps most noteworthy in the call, Musk disclosed that Tesla is aiming to ramp battery production from 28 gigawatt hours (GWh) today to 2 terawatt hours (TWh) over time. ARK’s research suggests that 2 TWh could accommodate 26 million EVs, as shown in the tweet below, to which Musk responded that 25-50% of the battery capacity would go towards stationary energy storage. In other words, Tesla plans to ramp EV production from 360,000-400,000 this year to the 13-19 million range. In our bull case, Tesla will produce and sell 3 million EVs in 2023."
from ARK Disrupt - Issue 182 - dated 28 July 2019
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