2019 投資回顧

黎年投資其實幾難，尤其九月至十一月SAAS大跌，自己都有少少中招。幾回換馬惡戰，幸好十二月取得今年四成嘅利潤，達到年回報+26%。


年內最大貢獻的是ZTS、V，最嘔血的是上半年的企鵝牛不斷輸錢。港股要不是有贼爸爸上市，就無甚麼吸引力。

十二月十分精彩，美國大股強勢，自己月頭從ZTS 拆出多份資金，換入Amzn、半導體、生科等股票，又於$190左右買入巴巴價內call，追回不少回報。

展望2020年，AAPL 強勢持續，AMZN也該發力，巴巴要向$300進發。

持倉：

Main core: 

ZTS V AAPL AMZN ILMN GOOG

Others: 

TTD EXAS ROKU XLNX CRSP EDIT

RUBY TWOU 

BABA 價內call


Watchlist:
COST ISRG

BABA and Tencent will lead HK market a sustainable rally

BABA: forward PE is just around 22-24, and its recent EPS growth is around 40%.


Tencent: forward PE is just around 30. How about if its price rises to 35PE? It will be around $400.


If Tencent worth 35PE, how about BABA? 35PE? 45PE?


I guess the performance of HK market will be relatively strong in this quarter because of these two giant companies.

Zoetis (ZTS) quarterly result

The result is stronger than expectation. Q3 EPS is $0.94. Personally its fair value is $133-$140.

Apple (AAPL) and Facebook (FB) quarterly results

Apple: Actually Q4 is quite good. The coming year revenue will be strong. iPhone 11, iPhone XR in India, new services like Apple Card, TV, new 5G phones...etc. will be Apple's growth drivers. I guess its performance will be quite strong in the coming three to six months. What I can say? Elephant can still fly!!


FB: Strong result. Both Google and FB are not expensive now, but I like Google more. They will break new high soon.

Mastercard (MA) quarterly result

Good. Same as Visa.


Why not both?

Google (GOOG) quarterly result

Good. Although the cost increases, its potential for substantial growth is still high.


It will keep breaking new high.

Twitter (TWTR) quarterly result

Actually it is not bad. Should keep it rather than sell it now.

Visa (V) quarterly result

Good. It is still a good company with steady growth.


Fair value at this moment is $200-$210.


If its EPS in 2022 will reach $8.3-8.5, should you sell it today?

強弱表現 (2019.10.23)

	23/10/2019	52-high	Away from 52w-high
ZTS	122.81	130.08	-5.59%
V	170.86	186.71	-8.49%
AAPL	239.96	242.20	-0.92%
MSFT	136.37	141.68	-3.75%
TWTR	38.81	45.68	-15.04%
ROKU	129.06	176.55	-26.90%	remove from watchlist
LULU	204.40	209.02	-2.21%
COST	299.97	307.34	-2.40%
MCD	199.27	221.93	-10.21%
SBUX	83.46	99.72	-16.31%	remove from watchlist
AWK	122.39	129.89	-5.77%
AMT	226.74	242.00	-6.31%
NEE	236.24	239.89	-1.52%
1177	10.80	12.24	-11.76%
1093	17.04	17.76	-4.05%
291	39.85	45.20	-11.84%
6098	24.90	25.65	-2.92%
2382	114.10	120.40	-5.23%

Shopify 股票增發

公司宣布增發股票，盤後股價進一步下跌至 $321，自高位調整了 22%。
觀乎 SAAS其他股票，大部份反彈力仍然欠奉，感覺上此sector已經炒作完畢，像數年前既3D print、生化股等。
唯有等待大市整固過後，有沒有新的領導界別出現。

挨痛整固期

全世界強弱互換，增長股似乎整個九月都係咁既頹樣，唯有挨下啦。
暫時沒有特別的東西好談。


Watchlist 新增AAPL：

	11/9/2019	52-high	Away from 52w-high
ZTS	120.70	130.08	-7.21%
V	174.98	186.71	-6.28%
SHOP	347.51	409.61	-15.16%
MSFT	136.12	141.68	-3.92%
AAPL	223.59	233.47	-4.23%	新加入
TWTR	43.25	45.68	-5.32%
ROKU	149.76	170.97	-12.41%
LULU	196.41	204.44	-3.93%
COST	290.69	307.34	-5.42%
MCD	210.20	221.93	-5.29%
SBUX	90.98	99.72	-8.76%
AWK	121.25	129.89	-6.65%
AMT	212.70	242.00	-12.11%
NEE	220.06	225.96	-2.61%

SAAS 股災的提示

	10/9/2019	52-high	Away from 52w-high
ZTS	123.03	129.48	-4.98%
V	176.35	186.71	-5.55%
SHOP	337.24	409.61	-17.67%
MSFT	136.08	141.68	-3.95%
TWTR	43.25	45.68	-5.32%
AYX	115.95	147.24	-21.25%	removed from watchlist
ROKU	144.14	170.97	-15.69%
OKTA	107.22	141.85	-24.41%	removed from watchlist
TWLO	110.01	151.00	-27.15%	removed from watchlist
TTD	210.06	289.51	-27.44%	removed from watchlist
MDB	129.02	184.78	-30.18%	removed from watchlist
MELI	549.17	698.98	-21.43%	removed from watchlist
ZS	61.60	89.45	-31.13%	after market: $49.1 !!!!!
LULU	193.26	204.44	-5.47%	新加入
COST	297.00	307.34	-3.36%	新加入
MCD	209.68	221.93	-5.52%
SBUX	90.35	99.72	-9.40%
AWK	120.83	129.89	-6.98%
AMT	216.21	242.00	-10.66%
NEE	218.12	225.96	-3.47%
1177	10.70	12.24	-12.58%
1093	15.28	16.66	-8.28%
291	42.40	45.20	-6.19%
6098	22.15	24.60	-9.96%
2382	115.80	120.40	-3.82%	新加入

SAAS 股災咁款就唔使多講，好彩自己主力是ZTS、V、MSFT，再搭TWTR、SHOP (AYX、SBUX已於早前止蝕沽出)，否則一個月內回報跌10%-20%是絕不出奇。
今個月回報暫時是比上個月頂位跌 4%，還是在三數天內發生！現在是一個又急又有殺傷力的調整。又有幾多人有銀行股天然氣股呢？
玩美股守紀律的重要性比香港更甚 - 例如自己的AYX，若不是見許多熱門股已先後大幅倒下，起了戒心而心血來潮沽出，那一棍15%的大陰燭是決計避不了的。
這裏要提提ZS，今天業績公布後，after market比收市進一步下跌20%!!! 由高位計，三數個星期就給你打個四五折！咁睇要收復失地是十分艱難。
所以，組合除了分散，當中公司要有實質盈利也很重要。一隻股票跌了兩三成，係今時今日，要追回是很辛苦的，所以Saul 與美股軍師的十上十落打法，是絕不容易駕馭。


都係曹sir最好：止蝕不止賺！有懷疑就揸現金！

Zoetis 重磅新聞 - 將推出醫冶狗隻心線蟲新藥

The largest animal-health company, received an upgrade on Monday ahead of the expected regulatory approval of Simparica Trio, an oral canine drug that is expected to generate big sales.
Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of the animal-health industry on Monday, rating Zoetis (ticker: ZTS) a Buy. It cited the expected introduction of Simparica Trio, which is under regulatory review in the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Australia and Japan, as a reason for the rating.

The drug, which is chewable, will be used to prevent heartworm disease, treat and control ticks and internal parasites. One of its advantages will be convenience, as it will allow pet owners to combine several drugs into one.

“Our upside case for Simparica Trio sees potential for $1.36 [billion] of revenue in 2022 and $1.14 of incremental EPS (net of cannibalization),” the Goldman note said.


https://www.barrons.com/articles/zoetis-stock-canine-drug-simparica-trio-animal-health-51568035966

SAAS熱門股盡墨

	10/9/2019	52-high	Away from 52w-high
SAAS
AYX	120.48	147.79	-18.48%
TTD	213.67	289.51	-26.20%
OKTA	109.26	141.85	-22.97%
ZS	62.02	89.45	-30.67%
TWLO	108.60	150.44	-27.81%
MDB	131.37	184.78	-28.90%
Cloud
NOW	254.68	303.17	-15.99%
WDAY	171.04	226.83	-24.60%
E-Commerce / Payment
SHOP	358.67	409.61	-12.44%
MELI	571.13	698.98	-18.29%
SQ	61.47	101.15	-39.23%
Genetic Sequencing
GH	81.03	112.22	-27.79%
NVTA	20.54	28.75	-28.56%

SAAS承接數周前弱勢，各熱門股更於昨夜出現大瀉，如組合持有過多此類股票，一定身受重傷。當中最強的AYX，也單日跌出了一枝極其肉酸的陰燭，如果不能夠數天內收復失地，幾乎可以斷定是返魂乏術。
SAAS熱門股已沒有生還者，可以說泡沫已經爆破了。
基因排序的GH、NVTA也是業績後好消息出貨。始終業績後是快速跌到30%，中途也沒有反彈，又是一個可以放棄既sector。
至於Shopify，在痛哭慘叫聲中算是表現不錯，希望不會追跌吧！